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Updated 05/09/2008  
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Welcome to
TurkishBulls.com
The Daily Section

This section covers the daily part of this website. For Weekly Support please click on the "Weekly" button above the top menu bar.

About This Site

This site analyzes more than 350 securities quoted in the Istanbul Stock Exchange, indices, five major currencies and the gold price on daily basis using end of day data. The job accomplished in the background is immense. The data for all the stocks is downloaded and the data is then analyzed by a very sophisticated algorithm which issues daily signals. The commentaries are automatically generated for each signal and are revised in case of signal failures. All of this is done in a couple of hours after the closing bell.

The job at the background is very complex but presentation of the results is simple and user friendly. There are six trading signals posted. These are BUY-IF, BUY CONFIRMED, SELL-IF, SELL CONFIRMED, HOLD and WAIT. The signals are accompanied by daily commentaries. A multiple factor weighting scheme assign stars to all the stocks ranging between zero and five. The average success of five star stocks is a very impressive . Other important features of the site are portfolio tracking, stock scanning, two-year signal history and real time signal confirmation module , all of which are explained below.

Most of this section of the site including the signals as well as the commentaries is open to public and free of charge. However, access to star ratings, portfolio tracking, stock scanning and real time signal confirmation module are membership privileges.

The Philosophy

The philosophy shaping the signal system stems from our experiences which extend into quite a few years. This is not a trend following system. It emphasizes the identification of reversal points and is able to generate significant profits even in sideways and bearish markets. The essential tool used for this purpose is the Japanese candlestick patterns. The algorithm is able to recognize 91 different candlestick formations with high precision. It identifies relevant candlesticks applicable to each security on daily basis, explains the patterns shortly and generates a brief candlestick commentary. Interested investors may visit our educational website www.candlesticker.com for thorough information about each pattern.

This site transforms the investor into a dynamic and vital element of the trading system in order to cope with the speed and volatility of the market. This is a feature unique only to this site. To accomplish this, pattern based bullish and bearish alerts are issued. Alerts can only be confirmed under certain pre-defined conditions. The task of the investor is to check the validity of these conditions in the next day and then go long or short only in case of confirmation. The Signals section explains this process in more detail.

There is no fundamental analysis in this site. You won’t find balance sheets, news, experts, comments and gossip here which are conducive to manipulation and wrong interpretation. The aim is to create a truly objective system with no human interference at all (including even us). The system prevents interference of human emotions with trading decisions.

The Signals

BUY-IF and SELL-IF are conditional pre-signals (alerts) that are generated on the basis of the candlestick patterns, using daily patterns, and they are posted for the next day. Traders should consider the signals as confirmed and place their orders only if the market action in the next day proves that the alert generating pattern is confirmed.

There are three specific and well defined rules of confirmation for the pre-signals. Each of these confirmation rules is associated with pre-defined and definite price benchmarks. The confirmation rules and price benchmarks applicable in the next day are precisely explained in daily commentaries. The investor is supposed to check if one of the three confirmation rules is satisfied or not by comparing the price activity of the confirmation day with the benchmarks. If the investor is convinced about the validity of the confirmation, he/she must place the orders without waiting the next day. The investors are encouraged to use the real time signal confirmation module during the confirmation process. Real time signal confirmation module is activated a short while after the opening bell in the day of confirmation for the stocks which issued a BUY-IF or SELL-IF alert signal in the previous day. It remains open during the two seances of the confirmation day. The module compares the three minute delayed current market price with the price benchmarks and signals if the confirmation condition is satisfied during the seance or not. Though the signal confirmation status of the module is an important aid for the investor, it must be reminded that the confirmation status reported by the module reflects only a probability and the final and decisive decision about the status of the confirmation is given at the end of the day. The real time signal confirmation module is a membership privelege.

The system frequently (in the absence of negating patterns) waits one more day, thus allowing a second chance of confirmation. If the pattern is still not confirmed, then the conditional signals should be taken as null and void and should be ignored.

BUY CONFIRMED and SELL CONFIRMED are post-signals confirming the conditional signals. They show that the pattern is confirmed. They are actually a warning and a last chance for traders to place their orders. If investors are unable to monitor the prices in the confirmation day, they may wait to see if the BUY-IF or SELL-IF alert has been transformed into a BUY CONFIRMED or SELL CONFIRMED or not, in the system. However doing so, investors may realize their trades at more disadvantageous prices.

HOLD comes after a BUY CONFIRMED and stays until the next confirmed SELL signal. It urges investors to keep their long positions as long as the HOLD tag stays.

WAIT comes after a SELL CONFIRMED and stays until the next confirmed BUY signal. Investors are urged to keep their cash positions as long as the WAIT tag stays.

The system monitors the performance of each signal after it is issued. The investors are notified by revised commentaries in case of slight signal failures. If signal errors reach to intolerable levels, commentaries are revised again to accommodate a special warning.

A transparent history of the confirmed signals is given for each stock and index. Wherever applicable, the history is given for the last two years. The success and failure of the signals are clearly shown with checks and cross signs. Moreover, investors can also see what has happened to a 100 YTL invested two years ago in case of signal based trading. The buying and selling rates of history table are price benchmarks used for confirmation. Consequently, the signal history reflects the prices at which an investor acting on the basis of signals can genuinely buy or sell. The gains reported in the history table do not include potential short sale and interest gains.

Members Area

Our members enjoy certain privileges in return for a modest fee. These privileges are portfolio tracking, stock scanning, access to the stock star ratings and real time signal confirmation module.

Members can create and track their own portfolios. When the portfolio button in the members' daily home page is clicked, an empty page opens. Adding a stock to portfolio is easy. It is sufficient to go to the page of any stock and click on the "Add to Portfolio" button. A click on the "Remove from Portfolio" button in the stock page deletes this stock from the portfolio. The day's signal, previous signal, gain/loss since last signal and star rating is reported for each stock in the portfolio page.

Stars are assigned to all the stocks on the basis of a multiple factoring scheme according to percentage gain in the last two years, in the last three months, signal hit ratio, volume and beta value. Stocks below a certain score are not rated and get no stars. The highest rating is five stars. The average success is 77.5% for unrated stocks, 86.4% for rated stocks and 92.3% for five star stocks.

Stock Scanning is a very effective and convenient tool that enables the members to scan the stocks with respect to the market, currently posted signal, star rating and volume levels. Simply select a sector (e.g. Technology) and then select a signal (e.g. BUY-IF). You can narrow the scope of your scan by selecting an appropriate star rating, e.g. only four and more (4+) stars, and volume (e.g. only stocks with a volume over 10 million). You will then instantly be provided with a list of all stocks satisfying your criteria (all the stocks in Technology Sector with a BUY-IF signal and with a volume over 10 million and that has been rated with four stars and above). Sectors and signals can be multi-selected using the Ctrl key.

Using This Site

The home page is the introduction page. The weekly button at the upper left corner must be used to go to the weekly home page. There is a one to one correspondence between the daily and weekly pages. The home page displays the closing prices of the main indices of the Istanbul Stock Exchange and a table of suggested stocks. Turkishbulls follow the stocks in all the sectors of ISE. The list shows four recommended stocks from each sector with BUY CONFIRMED, BUY-IF, SELL-IF and SELL CONFIRMED signals (from top to bottom respectively).

Navigation through the site is by using the menu buttons at the top menu bar. A click on a main sector button opens the page of this main sector where you will find the list of all the stocks covered by the main sector, categorized under sectors and subsectors. A click on any stock symbol on this list leads to the page of that stock. On the other hand, a list of indices is reached by clicking on the Index button on the top menu bar. The page lists all the indices traded in ISE with daily values and signals. A click on any ticker on the index list opens the page of that index.

A stock page displays the closing price, the candlestick pattern, the signal, a small explanation about the interpretation of the pattern and the two year signal history of the stock. A detailed commentary explains what should be done and makes recommendations for the next day. A detailed quote for the stock can be found at the bottom of the page.

The search box is a very effective tool. It allows you to directly reach to the daily page of any one of the stocks simply by typing the ticker or company name in the search box and then by clicking on the GO button.

Rules of Confirmation

There are three symmetric confirmation criteria for BUY-IF and SELL-IF alerts.

A BUY-IF signal is confirmed and turns into a BUY CONFIRMED signal by one of the following conditions:

The market opens with an upward gap (an opening price above the previous close) signaling a bullish sentiment. The benchmark is the opening price. A confirmation is valid if the day’s prices stay over this benchmark. The pattern of this confirmation can be defined as a white candlestick with an upward gap.

The market opens at a level either equal to or below the previous close. The benchmark is the closing price of the previous day. A confirmation is valid if the day’s prices stay over this benchmark. The pattern of this confirmation can be defined as a white candlestick closing above the previous close.

The market opens with a big downward gap (an opening price way below the previous close) suggesting a very bearish day in this rarely observed case. However, the prices turn up and the day ends with a long white candlestick but still closing below the previous day’s close. The benchmark is the closing price of the long white candlestick. The pattern of this confirmation can be defined as a long white candlestick closing below the previous close.

If one of these conditions is not satisfied, the BUY-IF alert remains valid without confirmation and three confirmation criteria are sought in the following day. The only exception is a long black candlestick which makes the signal void and invalid automatically without further search. If there is still no confirmation in the following day, the alerts turn to be void and invalid regardless of the following day’s pattern and the search is terminated.

On the other hand, a SELL-IF signal is confirmed and turns into a SELL CONFIRMED signal by one of the following conditions:

The market opens with a downward gap (an opening price below the previous close) signaling a bearish sentiment. The benchmark is the opening price. A confirmation is valid if the day’s prices stay below the benchmark. The pattern of this confirmation can be defined as a black candlestick with a downward gap.

The market opens at a level, equal to or above the previous close. The benchmark is the closing price of the previous day. A confirmation is valid if the day’s prices stay below the benchmark. The pattern of this confirmation can be defined as a black candlestick closing below the previous close.

The market opens with a big upward gap suggesting a very bullish day in this rarely observed case. However, the prices turn down and the day ends with a long black candlestick still closing above the previous day’s close. The benchmark is the closing price of the long black candlestick. The pattern of this confirmation is a long black candlestick closing above the previous close.

If one of these conditions is not satisfied, the SELL-IF alert remains valid without confirmation and three confirmation criteria are sought in the following day. The only exception is a long white candlestick which makes the signal void and invalid automatically without further search. If there is still no confirmation in the following day, the alerts turn to be void and invalid regardless of the following day’s pattern and the search is terminated.

  Disclaimer  
 

The opinions provided herein are intended to inform. They come with no warranty of any kind. If you should choose to interpret TurkishBulls.com information as investment advice, you do so at your own risk. Investing can be a very dangerous venture and it is you who must assume the entire cost and risk involved in all of your investment decisions, should you choose to follow this advice or use this information. TurkishBulls.com staff, members of the staff's families, and/or entities with which they are affiliated, may from time to time, buy, sell or hold stock in and have other financial dealings with the companies that appear on the TurkishBulls.com web site, mailings, or publications. The information contained on the TurkishBulls.com web site, mailings, and publications is drawn from sources believed to be factual and reliable, but in no way does TurkishBulls.com represent or guarantee the accuracy or completeness thereof, nor in providing it, does TurkishBulls.com assume any liability. This information is given as of the date appearing on the TurkishBulls.com web site report or mailing, and TurkishBulls.com assumes no obligation to update the information or advice on further developments relating to any named securities. The information found on the TurkishBulls.com web site, mailings, or publications is protected by the copyright laws of Turkey and may not be copied, or reproduced in any way without the expressed, written consent of the editors.